Serie B · Matchweek 8
Avellino
AVE
Padova
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Avellino49%
Draw27%
Padova25%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.06
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Padova get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
42%Possession40%
28%Territory39%
17%From set plays37%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.7%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Avellino, 3 for Padova. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.