Serie B · Matchweek 8
Arezzo
ARE
Benevento
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arezzo39%
Draw27%
Benevento34%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.39
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession45%
33%Territory32%
29%From set plays34%
0.07Chance quality0.06
9.6%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arezzo, 3 for Benevento. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.