Serie B · Matchweek 7
Sampdoria
SAM
Arezzo
ARE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sampdoria54%
Draw25%
Arezzo21%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.03
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession43%
42%Territory33%
27%From set plays29%
0.11Chance quality0.07
4.4%Directness9.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sampdoria, 3 for Arezzo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.