Serie B · Matchweek 7
Cesena
CES
Avellino
AVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cesena47%
Draw27%
Avellino26%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.11
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession42%
31%Territory28%
26%From set plays17%
0.10Chance quality0.12
6.4%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cesena, 3 for Avellino. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.