Serie B · Matchweek 6
Padova
PAD
Carrarese
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Padova36%
Draw28%
Carrarese36%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.34
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession34%
39%Territory38%
37%From set plays43%
0.11Chance quality0.08
7.2%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Padova, 3 for Carrarese. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.