Serie B · Matchweek 6
Empoli
EMP
Palermo
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Empoli29%
Draw27%
Palermo43%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.50
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
32%Territory37%
38%From set plays26%
0.07Chance quality0.10
5.5%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Empoli, 3 for Palermo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.