Serie B · Matchweek 6
Benevento
BEN
Cesena
CES
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benevento30%
Draw27%
Cesena43%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.54
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession49%
32%Territory31%
34%From set plays26%
0.06Chance quality0.10
5.9%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Benevento, 3 for Cesena. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.