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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 6

Avellino

AVE

Sampdoria

SAM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Avellino40%
Draw29%
Sampdoria31%

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.13

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.0%
  • 1–011.7%
  • 0–010.0%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

42%Possession49%
28%Territory42%
17%From set plays27%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.7%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Avellino, 3 for Sampdoria. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.