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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 5

Sampdoria

SAM

Catanzaro

CAT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sampdoria38%
Draw28%
Catanzaro34%

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.30

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 0–19.2%
  • 2–18.4%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Catanzaro will have the ball; Sampdoria will not mind.

49%Possession59%
42%Territory46%
27%From set plays6%
0.11Chance quality0.08
4.4%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sampdoria, 3 for Catanzaro. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.