Serie B · Matchweek 5
Modena
MOD
Empoli
EMP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena56%
Draw26%
Empoli18%
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.85
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–09.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Empoli get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
54%Possession52%
49%Territory32%
21%From set plays38%
0.07Chance quality0.07
5.6%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Modena, 3 for Empoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.