Serie B · Matchweek 5
Mantova
MAN
Pisa
PIS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova51%
Draw25%
Pisa25%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.20
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession44%
33%Territory41%
19%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.11
7.0%Directness3.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mantova, 3 for Pisa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.