Serie B · Matchweek 5
Ascoli
ASC
Avellino
AVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ascoli42%
Draw28%
Avellino30%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.21
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ascoli will have the ball; Avellino will not mind.
64%Possession42%
49%Territory28%
23%From set plays17%
0.13Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ascoli, 3 for Avellino. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.