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Serie B · Matchweek 5

Arezzo

ARE

Südtirol

SDT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arezzo31%
Draw29%
Südtirol40%

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.33

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.9%
  • 0111.5%
  • 109.7%
  • 009.6%
  • 128.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arezzo get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

43%Possession48%
33%Territory35%
29%From set plays14%
0.07Chance quality0.06
9.6%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arezzo, 3 for Südtirol. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.