Super League 1 · Matchweek 23
Olympiacos
OLY
Aris Thessaloniki
ARI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Olympiacos58%
Draw24%
Aris Thessaloniki18%
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession58%
37%Territory37%
16%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.08
4.6%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Olympiacos, 3 for Aris Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.