Super League 1 · Matchweek 22
AEK Athens
AEK
Asteras Tripolis
AST
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AEK Athens73%
Draw17%
Asteras Tripolis10%
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.79
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession46%
34%Territory33%
19%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.11
5.8%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for AEK Athens, 3 for Asteras Tripolis. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.