Super League 1 · Matchweek 21
PAOK Thessaloniki
PAO
AEK Athens
AEK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PAOK Thessaloniki32%
Draw26%
AEK Athens43%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.62
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession57%
47%Territory34%
29%From set plays19%
0.13Chance quality0.11
5.0%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PAOK Thessaloniki, 2 for AEK Athens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
PAOK Thessaloniki
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.