Super League 1 · Matchweek 21
OFI Crete
OFI
Aris Thessaloniki
ARI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
OFI Crete48%
Draw26%
Aris Thessaloniki27%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.21
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.5%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession58%
35%Territory37%
18%From set plays25%
0.16Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for OFI Crete, 3 for Aris Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.