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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Super League 1 · Matchweek 20

Aris Thessaloniki

ARI

Panathinaikos

PAN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aris Thessaloniki23%
Draw26%
Panathinaikos51%

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.64

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 0–111.5%
  • 1–29.6%
  • 0–28.7%
  • 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession61%
37%Territory51%
25%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.10
8.5%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aris Thessaloniki, 3 for Panathinaikos. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.