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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Super League 1 · Matchweek 19

PAOK Thessaloniki

PAO

Panetolikos

PAE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

PAOK Thessaloniki46%
Draw25%
Panetolikos29%

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.36

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 1–27.0%
  • 2–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Panetolikos get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

43%Possession39%
38%Territory38%
4%From set plays23%
0.17Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness9.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PAOK Thessaloniki, 3 for Panetolikos. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 28 matches, not the full season.