Super League 1 · Matchweek 17
AEK Athens
AEK
Kalamata
KAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AEK Athens66%
Draw20%
Kalamata14%
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.97
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession42%
34%Territory32%
19%From set plays17%
0.11Chance quality0.13
5.8%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for AEK Athens, 3 for Kalamata. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.