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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Super League 1 · Matchweek 16

Aris Thessaloniki

ARI

PAOK Thessaloniki

PAO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aris Thessaloniki32%
Draw26%
PAOK Thessaloniki42%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.57

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 0–18.9%
  • 1–28.9%
  • 1–07.6%
  • 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession57%
37%Territory47%
25%From set plays29%
0.08Chance quality0.13
8.5%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aris Thessaloniki, 3 for PAOK Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.