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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Super League 1 · Matchweek 16

Aris Thessaloniki

ARI

PAOK Thessaloniki

PAO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aris Thessaloniki34%
Draw25%
PAOK Thessaloniki41%

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.70

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 2–17.7%
  • 0–17.2%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Aris Thessaloniki get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession43%
34%Territory38%
27%From set plays4%
0.08Chance quality0.17
6.3%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aris Thessaloniki, 3 for PAOK Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 28 matches, not the full season.