Super League 1 · Matchweek 15
Aris Thessaloniki
ARI
AEK Athens
AEK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aris Thessaloniki22%
Draw26%
AEK Athens52%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.68
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.1%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
58%Possession57%
37%Territory34%
25%From set plays19%
0.08Chance quality0.11
8.5%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aris Thessaloniki, 2 for AEK Athens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Aris Thessaloniki
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.