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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Super League 1 · Matchweek 14

PAOK Thessaloniki

PAO

Panathinaikos

PAN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

PAOK Thessaloniki30%
Draw25%
Panathinaikos45%

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.68

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 2–17.2%
  • 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession61%
45%Territory51%
31%From set plays27%
0.11Chance quality0.10
4.6%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for PAOK Thessaloniki, 3 for Panathinaikos. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 18 of 60 matches, not the full season.