Super League 1 · Matchweek 13
Panathinaikos
PAN
Aris Thessaloniki
ARI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Panathinaikos62%
Draw22%
Aris Thessaloniki15%
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 2–011.0%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession58%
51%Territory37%
27%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.08
5.7%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Panathinaikos, 3 for Aris Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Panathinaikos
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 62 matches, not the full season.