Super League 1 · Matchweek 12
Aris Thessaloniki
ARI
Olympiacos
OLY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aris Thessaloniki27%
Draw27%
Olympiacos46%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.51
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.1%
- 1–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession58%
37%Territory37%
25%From set plays17%
0.08Chance quality0.10
8.5%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aris Thessaloniki, 3 for Olympiacos. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Aris Thessaloniki
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 18 of 60 matches, not the full season.