Super League 1 · Matchweek 12
AEK Athens
AEK
PAOK Thessaloniki
PAO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AEK Athens59%
Draw22%
PAOK Thessaloniki19%
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.11
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession58%
34%Territory45%
19%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.11
5.8%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for AEK Athens, 4 for PAOK Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 18 of 60 matches, not the full season.