Super League 1 · Matchweek 12
AEK Athens
AEK
PAOK Thessaloniki
PAO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AEK Athens51%
Draw24%
PAOK Thessaloniki25%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.30
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
AEK Athens will have the ball; PAOK Thessaloniki will not mind.
63%Possession43%
37%Territory38%
21%From set plays4%
0.12Chance quality0.17
4.7%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AEK Athens, 3 for PAOK Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 28 matches, not the full season.