Super League 1 · Matchweek 11
Asteras Tripolis
AST
Aris Thessaloniki
ARI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Asteras Tripolis44%
Draw25%
Aris Thessaloniki31%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.40
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession45%
41%Territory34%
19%From set plays27%
0.09Chance quality0.08
7.6%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Asteras Tripolis, 3 for Aris Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Asteras Tripolis
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Aris Thessaloniki
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 28 matches, not the full season.