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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Super League 1 · Matchweek 10

Aris Thessaloniki

ARI

Panetolikos

PAE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aris Thessaloniki36%
Draw26%
Panetolikos38%

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.59

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 1–28.4%
  • 2–18.1%
  • 0–17.4%
  • 1–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession39%
34%Territory38%
27%From set plays23%
0.08Chance quality0.10
6.3%Directness9.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aris Thessaloniki, 3 for Panetolikos. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 28 matches, not the full season.