Super League 1 · Matchweek 9
Panathinaikos
PAN
AEK Athens
AEK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Panathinaikos45%
Draw25%
AEK Athens29%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.33
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.1%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
65%Possession63%
52%Territory37%
13%From set plays21%
0.11Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Panathinaikos, 3 for AEK Athens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Panathinaikos
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 28 matches, not the full season.