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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Super League 1 · Matchweek 6

PAOK Thessaloniki

PAO

Kalamata

KAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

PAOK Thessaloniki47%
Draw25%
Kalamata28%

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.32

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.9%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 2–06.9%
  • 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kalamata get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

43%Possession48%
38%Territory38%
4%From set plays36%
0.17Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PAOK Thessaloniki, 3 for Kalamata. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 28 matches, not the full season.