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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Super League 1 · Matchweek 5

Panetolikos

PAE

PAOK Thessaloniki

PAO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Panetolikos41%
Draw26%
PAOK Thessaloniki34%

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.47

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 1–07.9%
  • 1–27.8%
  • 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Panetolikos get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

39%Possession43%
38%Territory38%
23%From set plays4%
0.10Chance quality0.17
9.4%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Panetolikos, 3 for PAOK Thessaloniki. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 28 matches, not the full season.