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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 25

Gaziantep FK

GAZ

Başakşehir

BAA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Gaziantep FK28%
Draw25%
Başakşehir47%

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.68

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 1–29.4%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 0–27.1%
  • 2–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Başakşehir get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession48%
39%Territory33%
8%From set plays30%
0.08Chance quality0.12
7.7%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Gaziantep FK, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.