Süper Lig · Matchweek 25
Samsunspor
SAM
Kasımpaşa
KAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Samsunspor30%
Draw28%
Kasımpaşa42%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.39
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession47%
35%Territory28%
21%From set plays26%
0.10Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Samsunspor, 3 for Kasımpaşa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.