Süper Lig · Matchweek 24
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Rizespor
RIZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe63%
Draw21%
Rizespor16%
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.01
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession49%
41%Territory37%
21%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.11
6.0%Directness9.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Rizespor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.