Süper Lig · Matchweek 23
Samsunspor
SAM
Erzurumspor FK
ERZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Samsunspor38%
Draw28%
Erzurumspor FK33%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.25
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession44%
35%Territory37%
21%From set plays8%
0.10Chance quality0.12
6.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Samsunspor, 3 for Erzurumspor FK. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.