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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 23

Gaziantep FK

GAZ

Kocaelispor

KOC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Gaziantep FK31%
Draw32%
Kocaelispor37%

Expected goals

0.99 – 1.10

Over 2.5

35%

Both to score

43%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–014.0%
  • 0–113.7%
  • 1–113.6%
  • 1–012.2%
  • 1–27.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kocaelispor get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession54%
39%Territory34%
8%From set plays42%
0.08Chance quality0.09
7.7%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Gaziantep FK, 3 for Kocaelispor. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.