Süper Lig · Matchweek 22
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Gaziantep FK
GAZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe68%
Draw19%
Gaziantep FK13%
Expected goals
2.27 – 0.93
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession52%
41%Territory39%
21%From set plays8%
0.10Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Gaziantep FK. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Gaziantep FK
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.