Süper Lig · Matchweek 21
Samsunspor
SAM
Kocaelispor
KOC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Samsunspor27%
Draw30%
Kocaelispor43%
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.27
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Kocaelispor get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession54%
35%Territory34%
21%From set plays42%
0.10Chance quality0.09
6.0%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Samsunspor, 3 for Kocaelispor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kocaelispor
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.