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Süper Lig · Matchweek 21

Beşiktaş

BEI

Fenerbahçe

FEN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Beşiktaş45%
Draw26%
Fenerbahçe29%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.27

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.7%
  • 109.6%
  • 219.2%
  • 017.3%
  • 127.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession53%
43%Territory35%
22%From set plays28%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.0%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Beşiktaş, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.