Süper Lig · Matchweek 21
Beşiktaş
BEI
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Beşiktaş45%
Draw26%
Fenerbahçe29%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.27
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–27.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession53%
43%Territory35%
22%From set plays28%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.0%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Beşiktaş, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.