Süper Lig · Matchweek 20
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Samsunspor
SAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe64%
Draw21%
Samsunspor15%
Expected goals
2.07 – 0.93
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.9%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession58%
35%Territory40%
28%From set plays21%
0.09Chance quality0.08
5.7%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Samsunspor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.