Süper Lig · Matchweek 20
Kasımpaşa
KAS
Başakşehir
BAA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kasımpaşa33%
Draw29%
Başakşehir38%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.32
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession48%
28%Territory33%
26%From set plays30%
0.08Chance quality0.12
5.8%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kasımpaşa, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kasımpaşa
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.