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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 18

Kocaelispor

KOC

Başakşehir

BAA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kocaelispor39%
Draw29%
Başakşehir31%

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.15

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.0%
  • 1–011.5%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 0–09.9%
  • 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Başakşehir will have the ball; Kocaelispor will not mind.

47%Possession56%
38%Territory36%
14%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness8.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kocaelispor, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.