Süper Lig · Matchweek 18
Kocaelispor
KOC
Başakşehir
BAA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kocaelispor35%
Draw31%
Başakşehir34%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.12
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.0%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession48%
34%Territory33%
42%From set plays30%
0.09Chance quality0.12
7.2%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kocaelispor, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kocaelispor
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.