Süper Lig · Matchweek 18
Alanyaspor
ALA
Gaziantep FK
GAZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alanyaspor47%
Draw27%
Gaziantep FK27%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.15
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession47%
37%Territory36%
31%From set plays34%
0.14Chance quality0.08
7.9%Directness8.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alanyaspor, 3 for Gaziantep FK. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.