Süper Lig · Matchweek 17
Kocaelispor
KOC
Kasımpaşa
KAS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kocaelispor37%
Draw33%
Kasımpaşa30%
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.92
Over 2.5
32%
Both to score
41%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–015.6%
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.6%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession46%
38%Territory28%
14%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kocaelispor, 3 for Kasımpaşa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.