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Süper Lig · Matchweek 17

Kocaelispor

KOC

Kasımpaşa

KAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kocaelispor37%
Draw33%
Kasımpaşa30%

Expected goals

1.05 – 0.92

Over 2.5

32%

Both to score

41%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 0015.6%
  • 1014.7%
  • 1113.6%
  • 0112.6%
  • 217.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession46%
38%Territory28%
14%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kocaelispor, 3 for Kasımpaşa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.