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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 17

Kocaelispor

KOC

Kasımpaşa

KAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kocaelispor39%
Draw34%
Kasımpaşa26%

Expected goals

1.04 – 0.81

Over 2.5

28%

Both to score

37%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–017.5%
  • 1–016.4%
  • 1–113.3%
  • 0–112.4%
  • 2–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kocaelispor get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

54%Possession47%
34%Territory28%
42%From set plays26%
0.09Chance quality0.08
7.2%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kocaelispor, 3 for Kasımpaşa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.