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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 17

Fenerbahçe

FEN

Amed Sportif

AME

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fenerbahçe58%
Draw23%
Amed Sportif19%

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.07

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.2%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.2%
  • 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession47%
35%Territory33%
28%From set plays37%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.7%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Amed Sportif. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.