Süper Lig · Matchweek 17
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Amed Sportif
AME
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe50%
Draw24%
Amed Sportif26%
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.32
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession53%
41%Territory43%
21%From set plays12%
0.10Chance quality0.15
6.0%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Amed Sportif. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.