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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 17

Alanyaspor

ALA

Başakşehir

BAA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Alanyaspor44%
Draw26%
Başakşehir30%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.28

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.4%
  • 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Başakşehir will have the ball; Alanyaspor will not mind.

46%Possession56%
37%Territory36%
31%From set plays15%
0.14Chance quality0.10
7.9%Directness8.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alanyaspor, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.