Süper Lig · Matchweek 17
Alanyaspor
ALA
Başakşehir
BAA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Alanyaspor22%
Draw25%
Başakşehir54%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.75
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.0%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession48%
30%Territory33%
38%From set plays30%
0.07Chance quality0.12
5.8%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Alanyaspor, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Alanyaspor
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.