Süper Lig · Matchweek 16
Başakşehir
BAA
Erzurumspor FK
ERZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Başakşehir59%
Draw24%
Erzurumspor FK17%
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.92
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Başakşehir get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession44%
33%Territory37%
30%From set plays8%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.8%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Başakşehir, 3 for Erzurumspor FK. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.