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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 16

Başakşehir

BAA

Erzurumspor FK

ERZ

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Başakşehir56%
Draw24%
Erzurumspor FK20%

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.09

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–09.0%
  • 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Başakşehir will have the ball; Erzurumspor FK will not mind.

56%Possession38%
36%Territory32%
15%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.08
8.3%Directness8.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Başakşehir, 3 for Erzurumspor FK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.