Süper Lig · Matchweek 16
Kasımpaşa
KAS
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kasımpaşa23%
Draw27%
Fenerbahçe50%
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.53
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–09.2%
- 0–29.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession53%
28%Territory35%
22%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kasımpaşa, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.