Süper Lig · Matchweek 16
Kasımpaşa
KAS
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kasımpaşa26%
Draw27%
Fenerbahçe47%
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.51
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
- 0–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession54%
28%Territory41%
26%From set plays21%
0.08Chance quality0.10
5.8%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kasımpaşa, 3 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kasımpaşa
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.