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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 15

Erzurumspor FK

ERZ

Kasımpaşa

KAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Erzurumspor FK29%
Draw30%
Kasımpaşa41%

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.26

Over 2.5

40%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.2%
  • 0–112.8%
  • 0–011.3%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kasımpaşa will have the ball; Erzurumspor FK will not mind.

38%Possession46%
32%Territory28%
36%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.10
8.2%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Erzurumspor FK, 3 for Kasımpaşa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.