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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 15

Erzurumspor FK

ERZ

Kasımpaşa

KAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Erzurumspor FK31%
Draw32%
Kasımpaşa37%

Expected goals

1.01 – 1.10

Over 2.5

35%

Both to score

44%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–013.7%
  • 1–113.6%
  • 0–113.4%
  • 1–012.1%
  • 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kasımpaşa get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

44%Possession47%
37%Territory28%
8%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.5%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Erzurumspor FK, 3 for Kasımpaşa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 89 matches, not the full season.