Süper Lig · Matchweek 15
Rizespor
RIZ
Başakşehir
BAA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rizespor33%
Draw26%
Başakşehir41%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.55
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession48%
37%Territory33%
28%From set plays30%
0.11Chance quality0.12
9.0%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rizespor, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 89 matches, not the full season.