Süper Lig · Matchweek 15
Rizespor
RIZ
Başakşehir
BAA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rizespor48%
Draw25%
Başakşehir28%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.34
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession56%
38%Territory36%
11%From set plays15%
0.14Chance quality0.10
7.7%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rizespor, 3 for Başakşehir. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Başakşehir
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.